What Happens If Jeremy Corbyn Wins?

Veteran Islington North MP Jeremy Corbyn seems to be stealing the march on his Labour leadership rivals.

This week he has been out campaigning and so far has had supporters rallying out on the streets of London and crowds out in Leeds as he presents his 2020 Vision for Britain.

In it he has set out his plans for the North to combat George Osborne's "Northern Powerhouse" - essential for bringing back some of that core Labour support that deserted under Ed Miliband.

His team is getting ever slicker and his campaign is gathering momentum. Polls have put him in the lead - by some way.

So if team Corbyn triumphs come 12 September, what could happen?

1) The Labour Party splits

There have been threats that a Corbyn victory would lead to a 1980s-style spilt within Labour - the right of the party potentially joining with the Lib Dems or forming their own party.

While many frontbenchers such as shadow chancellor Chuka Umunna, shadow defence secretary Vernon Coaker and shadow home secretary Yvette Cooper have said they would refuse to serve under him, a spilt seems unlikely.

If Mr Corbyn, receives a large share of the membership vote, he will have a mandate.

Labour is a tribal party and Liz Kendall may well have summed up that loyalty when she said she could no more leave the Labour party than "her own family".

2) The party shifts significantly to the Left

Often described as a left-wing militant, Mr Corbyn will certainly put radical socialist ideals at the core of the Labour Party.

Mr Corbyn opposes continued austerity, arguing for higher levels of public spending, nationalisation of the railways and opposes renewing Trident.

He also wants the removal of the £93bn worth of corporate tax relief and subsidies. 

On his rivals, he says: "They are not offering a clear enough alternative on the economic strategy and austerity, and our attitude to welfare expenditure."

3) More control by the Unions

It was the unions wot won it.

If Mr Corby wins, the unions will have played a significant part in his victory, he currently has the backing of the RMT, ASLEF, Unison and the UK’s largest union Unite.

Unite said Mr Corbyn won its backing "in recognition that his policies were most closely aligned with those of Unite".

And while the unions are expected to have less influence on this year's contest, because the party has moved to a one member, one vote system for choosing its leader, having signed up tens of thousands of members, their support could prove crucial.

Calais Crisis: Smugglers Put Up Prices For UK

Tighter security around Calais has prompted criminal gangs to charge even more to take migrants through to the UK, Sky News has learned.

Prices have risen sharply in recent days according to an aid volunteer who works every day with those living in the makeshift town nicknamed "The Jungle" on the edge of Calais.

Maya Konforti has helped people there seven days a week for the past 18 months.

She told Sky News: "It makes the smuggler's day. People don't realise that the harder the border is to cross, the more the smuggling rings develop, find ways to cross, and they increase their prices.

"Two months ago they were paying €500 (£351) for people to open a truck and to close the door on them and choosing their truck. Now it has gone to €800 (£562) or €1,100 (£772)."

Fortified fences, extra sniffer dogs and enhanced surveillance equipment are now in the process of being installed in northern France, particularly around the Eurotunnel terminal just outside Calais.

Ms Konforti, who works with the aid group l'Auberge des Migrants, added: "If they keep on building fences we are going to see more deaths ... people still take more risks.

"Calais is like a pressure cooker with the heat on high underneath. If you close the pressure like when you do with fences, all you do is make it explode ... It is clearly not the way to just close borders."

Prime Minister David Cameron, who is currently away on holiday, has warned that the struggle to hold back people trying to enter the UK illegally from northern France may go on for the rest of the summer.

The Government has announced new measures designed to put off would-be asylum seekers, including threatening landlords who fail to evict migrants who do not have the right to live in Britain with a prison sentence of up to five years.

On Monday, Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond insisted the Government has a grip on the crisis, as he promised 100 security guards will be sent to Calais.

Osborne Pulls Trigger On £2bn RBS Share Sale

George Osborne has unveiled plans for a £2bn sale of taxpayers' shareholding in Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) in a symbolic moment that will crystallise a substantial loss on the stake.

Confirming widespread expectations that he would begin the processing of selling the shares this week, the Treasury said after the stock market closed on Monday that it would sell a 5.2% stake in RBS to City investors.

Directors of UK Financial Investments (UKFI), the agency which manages the state's 79% stake in RBS, held talks on Monday to sanction the move.

Details of the price obtained in the share sale will be disclosed on Tuesday morning, but bankers working on the deal were said to be confident of achieving a price of between 325p and 330p, representing a modest discount to RBS’s closing share price on Monday.

Investment bankers from Citi, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and UBS are working on the process, known as an accelerated book-build.

A disposal of RBS shares will contain huge resonance in the City, coming nearly seven years after the bank was rescued with more than £45bn of taxpayers' money.

The bailout took place at an average ‘in-price’ of 502p, but the Chancellor said in June that he was no longer prepared to wait for the bank’s shares to recover to that level before beginning the sale process.

Labour warned Mr Osborne against a summer sale of shares in RBS, arguing that it is not "an impossible objective" to recoup the public's investment if a disposal is delayed.

Speaking to Sky News, Chris Leslie, the shadow chancellor, said the Treasury's "haste" would need to be justified if it began selling the Government's stake ahead of a multibillion pound settlement with US regulators for mis-selling securities before the financial crisis.

Mr Leslie said he found it difficult to understand the sense of urgency with RBS shares trading so far below the taxpayers' 'in price' of 502p.

"The Chancellor will need to justify his haste if he sells off a chunk of RBS before the US settlement and when the market is less liquid.

"Taxpayers want their money back and I just don't believe this is an impossible objective," he said.

"Why this rush to sell when the share price is so far below that paid at the time of the rescue? RBS had to be bailed out urgently, but it doesn’t have to be sold off at the same speed."

Mr Osborne announced in his Budget last month that he would offload at least £2bn of the bank's shares by next April.

A Treasury spokesman said: “UK Financial Investments (UKFI) today advised the Chancellor it would be appropriate to conduct the first sale of the Government’s shareholding in the Royal Bank of Scotland. The Chancellor agrees with that advice and has authorised the process to begin.

“The government set out its objectives for its shareholdings in the banks in the Chancellor’s annual Mansion House speech in June 2013 – getting the best value for the taxpayer, maximising support for the economy and restoring them to private ownership – and as set out in that address, the government will only conclude a sale if these objectives are met.

“In his Mansion House speech in June this year, the Chancellor announced his intention to start returning RBS to the private sector in the coming months, following advice from the Governor of the Bank of England.”

Last week, RBS unveiled a half-year loss after taking a string of charges for mis-selling and restructuring, and signalled that dividend payments would not restart until 2017 at the earliest.

Mr Osborne is determined to head off criticism about the sale of an initial tranche of RBS shares at a loss.

In a report he commissioned from Rothschild, the investment bank, his advisers concluded that disposing of the taxpayer's entire stake in the bank would crystallise a £7bn loss if fees paid to the Treasury since 2008 were taken into account.

They added, however, that the Government could make an overall profit of £14bn from its bank rescues, which included the emergency bailouts of Bradford & Bingley, Lloyds Banking Group and Northern Rock.

That view was immediately challenged by Andrew Tyrie, the Treasury Select Committee chairman, who argued that the projected surplus did not include the cost of financing the acquisitions.

"The start of a sale programme can send a strong signal that the bank is making strong progress in its restructuring and is well on the way to recovery," Rothschild said in its report recommending that the Chancellor kicks off the sale.

"Any residual impression amongst investors that the bank may not be run for purely commercial purposes is likely to evaporate very quickly".

Britain Extends Air Strikes On Islamic State

Britain will extend air strikes by RAF Tornados against the Islamic State by an extra year, the UK defence secretary has said.

Michael Fallon has announced that 12 (Bomber) Squadron will continue in service until March 2017.

He said the British jets had helped Iraqi forces on the ground to push militants out of key towns.

"RAF Tornados have carried out hundreds of strikes, helping Iraqi forces push back ISIL from the Kurdish region and out of key towns such as Tikrit and Bayji," he said.

"We want to ensure we maintain this crucial operational tempo and so we will extend the lifetime of Number 12 Squadron for a further year to March 2017.

"This will allow us to sustain our effort, helping the Iraqis lead the fight on the ground."

Speaking during a visit to Baghdad, Mr Fallon said the extension would ensure the RAF retained "the essential precision firepower, intelligence and surveillance" capabilities needed for operations against IS.

The decision was welcomed by the head of the RAF, Air Chief Marshal Sir Andrew Pulford.

"It is clear that the requirement for fast jet precision strike and intelligence gathering shows no sign of diminishing," he said.

The GR4s, operating out of RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus, are equipped with precision-guided Paveway bombs and Brimstone missiles.

They can also be fitted with Raptor reconnaissance pods for carrying out surveillance and intelligence gathering missions.

Together with the RAF's unmanned Reaper drones, also operating in the region, they have flown more than 1,100 combat missions over Iraq.

They have carried out more than 250 air strikes.

During his visit to Baghdad, Mr Fallon held talks with Prime Minister Haider al Abadi and other senior Iraqi government figures.

Mass Inhalation Of Laughing Gas At Parliament

Protesters inhaled laughing gas outside Parliament to show their opposition to a proposed law on psychoactive substances.

The mass inhalation of nitrous oxide was to protest against the Government's plans to crack down on legal highs.

Some of the protesters erupted into giggles before spreading out across the lawn.

Figures suggest laughing gas is the fourth most used drug in the UK and that 400,000 used it in 2013-14.

Although conventionally used as an anaesthetic during dentistry and child birth and as an aid in the manufacture of whipped cream, the substance can be used as a mood enhancer.

The cause of death of a teenager that had been linked to laughing gas was last week deemed "inconclusive" after a post-mortem.

But the Government wants to include it in a bill that will make it illegal to sell any "psychoactive substances" other than alcohol, caffeine and nicotine.

It comes after several other deaths have been linked to so-called legal highs - drugs that produce a psychoactive response but are not currently classified under the UK's drug rating system.

While possession will remain legal so long as there is no intent to supply, the bill could mean up to seven years in prison for people who provide drugs to others.

The director of the Psychedelic Society, which organised the laughing gas protest, says it is not the job of the Government to tell people what they can and cannot use.

Stephen Reid told Sky News: "This is intended to make a serious point about the bill and the huge infringement of liberty that entails and about the fact that this bill is going to do more harm than good.

"It's going to make it harder for people to access education, it's not going to reduce the number of people taking these things and the sensible solution has to be legal regulation of these drugs."

Professor David Nutt, former drugs tsar and professor of neuropsychopharmacology, said: "It's probably one of the safest recreational substances there has ever been.

"It's been used for over 200 years, largely as an analgesic, a pain killer. It's been used by writers like Coleridge and philosophers like James to get insights into the brain and now it's being used by young people as an alternative to alcohol on the grounds that it's a lot safer than alcohol and a lot shorter acting.

"So this desire to ban it is rather bizarre really."

Addiction therapist Sarah Graham, however, said that it was a potentially addictive drug that needed to be controlled.

She told Sky News: "We do need this psychoactive substances bill because we can have a blanket ban and take down the internet sites and stop them being marketed at young people and so that the police can take some action because this has become a really big problem." 

Where Are Holidays Cheapest As Pound Soars?

British tourists finally have something to be grateful for after delays in Kent and strike action in France as the soaring pound has pushed down the price of holidaying in the eurozone.

Holidays to the 19 eurozone countries are now nearly 12% cheaper than they were at this time last year, after the value of the euro plummeted. 

Given that the average Briton takes around £450 of spending money on holiday, this equates to a currency cost saving of over £50 for those heading to Spain, France or Italy this summer.

The euro fell below 70p for the first time in eight years on 16 July, making travelling to Europe cheaper than at any other time over the last eight years.

For holidaymakers heading to Turkey the gain is even greater, with holidays costing 20% less than they did in August last year.

The Turkish lira fell victim to the political uncertainty associated with its domestic elections this year together with concerns surrounding its neighbour, Syria. 

And for those really looking for a bargain there is no better place to go than the Ukraine where the currency, the Hryvnia, has weakened nearly 75% against sterling following sanctions imposed by Russia. 

For tourists heading to Orlando or Geneva this summer, however, the news is less positive. A strengthening US dollar and Swiss franc means holidays to these areas will cost 7% and 1% more respectively, from a currency perspective that is.

The Swiss franc has had a tumultuous year following the central bank's decision in January to  scrap a three-year-old cap on the franc. The cap had meant that the Swiss franc could not strengthen beyond the 1.20 level against the euro, but when this was dropped it surged to parity against the euro.

And the strong pound is not good news for everyone.

A report by the British Chamber of Commerce (BCC) this morning showed that the UK is set to miss the Government’s target of hitting £1tn worth of exports by 2020 by 14 years.

A strong pound makes UK exports more expensive which in turn means sales volumes decline.

The UK is the number two exporter of services in the world, behind only the US, but both regulatory and language barriers are curtailing further growth according the the BCC. 

The BCC's survey also highlighted service export hot spots for the next five years. In addition to the usual destinations of Germany, France and the US, the BCC believe China and the United Arab Emirates will become key customers for the UK's professional services.

Finally, the relative strength of the pound may dampen the Bank of England's enthusiasm for an early interest rate rise. Any rise would send the pound further north so it would be in Mark Carney's interest to carefully consider the export implications of such a rise.

US 'Spied On Japanese Government And Firms'

Major companies and senior politicians in Japan have been spied on by the US, according to Wikileaks.

In newly-released documents Wikileaks listed 35 telephone numbers that were targeted by the National Security Agency (NSA) for interception.

Wikileaks said the surveillance lasted for eight years, and demonstrates "the depth of US surveillance of the Japanese government".

The conversations of government ministers - including discussions on trade, climate change policy and nuclear talks - were allegedly scooped up by the US.

Bank of Japan officials were also targeted, Wikileaks said, as well as car firm Mitsubishi and white goods company Matsui.

The information gleaned was shared with the so-called Five Eyes group of Australia, Canada, the UK and New Zealand, Wikileaks added.

In a statement Wikileaks editor Julian Assange said: "In these documents we see the Japanese government worrying in private about how much or how little to tell the United States, in order to prevent undermining of its climate change proposal or its diplomatic relationship.

"And yet we now know that the United States heard everything and read everything, and was passing around the deliberations of Japanese leadership to Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the UK.

"The lesson for Japan is this: do not expect a global surveillance superpower to act with honour or respect. There is only one rule: there are no rules."

Japan and the US have not commented.